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India's group of death: What numbers say

By Rajneesh Gupta
Last updated on: March 22, 2007 13:16 IST
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The question that is in the mind of every Indian cricket fan right now is will India be able to make it to Super-Eight. Let's see what the numbers tell.

After Sri Lanka's win over Bangladesh on Wednesday, India now just needs to beat Sri Lanka without worrying about the net run-rate.

Bangladesh has done no good to its chances to qualify for Super-8 after being thrashed by 198 runs by Sri Lanka. Its net run-rate has come down to -2.0018 after that game.

Sri Lanka now heads the Group B with a net run-rate of +4.5937. India is second with a net run-rate of +2.507.

A victory by even one run (batting first) or off the last ball (batting second) over Sri Lanka will take India through to the next stage.

Suppose Sri Lanka scores 250 and India successfully chases the target off the last ball, then in such a scenario Sri Lanka will end up as the Group leader with a NRR of +3.0136. India will end up with a NRR of +1.6730.

Since Bangladesh will be playing its last league match against Bermuda after India-Sri Lanka game, theoretically it will have a chance to better India's NRR, but to do this Bangladesh has to produce something unimaginable.

If India beats Sri Lanka under the circumstances mentioned above, then to beat India on NRR the target for Bangladesh in the match against Bermuda will be:

If Bangladesh bats first
Bangladesh has to score 600 and restrict Bermuda to 168
Bangladesh has to score 550 and restrict Bermuda to 117
Bangladesh has to score 500 and restrict Bermuda to    67
Bangladesh has to score 450 and restrict Bermuda to   16

If Bermuda bats first
Bangladesh can not overhaul India's NRR even if it bundles out Bermuda for a total of 50 and achieves the target in first over itself!

India's NRR will remain around +1.65 even if it registers a win over Sri Lanka off the narrowest margin possible - batting first or second.

There will be a slight change in Bangladesh's target in the last league match depending upon the victory margin for India, but it is obvious that the target will only become more difficult for Bangladesh as the victory margin for India increases.

India can still make it to Super-8 despite losing to Sri Lanka on 23rd. But for that Bangladesh has to lose to Bermuda.

Will India make it to the next stage?

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Rajneesh Gupta