Rahul Dravid made the most sensible statement on today's India-Pakistan match when he said it is an "8-point match" for India.
Actually Dravid was being circumspect as usual. He didn't say that if Kenya also defeat Bangladesh in today's other match, India are virtually assured of a semi-final berth because India appear certain to gain four more points by defeating Kenya in the Super Six.
Let's review scenarios once again and try to guess the likely composition of the Super Six.
In Group A, we still await results of India vs Pakistan, Australia vs England, Pakistan vs Zimbabwe. In Group B we await the result of the very big match between South Africa and Sri Lanka.
In Group A, therefore, there are 8 possible scenarios -- some likely and the others much less likely. The table below considers all these scenarios.
| Group A results / final points tally | A | I | E | P | Z | Remarks (points carried forward in brackets) |
| I d P, A d E, P d Z | 24 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 12 | A (12), I (8) qualify. The team with best NRR among E (3), P (3) and Z (3) is third qualifier |
| P d I, A d E, P d Z | 24 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 12 | A(12), P (7) and I(4) qualify. |
| I d P, A d E, Z d P | 24 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 16 | A(12), I (8) and Z (4) qualify |
| P d I, A d E, Z d P | 24 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 16 | A(12), I (7) and Z (4) qualify |
| I d P, E d A, P d Z | 20 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 12 | A (8), I (8) and E (7) qualify |
| I d P, E d A, Z d P | 20 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 16 | A (8), I (8) and Z (4) qualify since Z have defeated' E! |
| P d I, E d A, P d Z | 20 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 12 | A (8+) qualify, the team with the least NRR among I (3+), P (3+) and E (3+) eliminated; points carried forward depend on teams qualifying |
| P d I, E d A, Z d P | 20 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 16 | A (8), I (7) and Z (4) qualify since I have defeated both E and Z and Z have defeated E |
Looking at the table above, it is clear that the only threat to India is in the seventh scenario; but here too the threat is minimal since India currently have the best NRR. Pakistan must win both their matches to qualify. If they are successful, they have an additional reward of 4 bonus points. For England, even defeating Australia is not a guarantee for qualifying. For Zimbabwe, it's all rather simple: just defeat Pakistan and sail into the Super Six.
We now look at Group B where, most sadly, West Indies now have only a very slim chance of qualifying. Here, it's down to the crucial South Africa vs Sri Lanka game. We will also consider the improbable Bangladesh victory over Kenya.
| Group B results / final points tally | SL | SA | NZ | K | WI | Remarks (points carried forward in brackets) |
| SA d SL, K d B | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | This is a most unusual scenario involving a 4-way tie. SA and K go through first because they have two wins each. Between SL and NZ the team with the better NRR qualifies; probably SL. If SL is the third qualifier then the "carry forward" points are SA (10), K (7) and SL (4). |
| SL d SA, K d B | 20 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 14 | SL (8), K (7) and NZ (4) qualify. |
| SA d SL, B d K | 16 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 14 | SA(7), SL (7) and NZ (7) qualify |
| SL d SA, B d K | 20 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 14 | SL(11), NZ (7) and WI (3.5) qualify |
Looking at the table it would seem that SL are quite safe, K are safe as soon as they defeat Bangladesh, SA make it if and only if they defeat SL and NZ wait in the wings, all jittery but with about an even chance.
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