The decision of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz to withdraw from the cabinet -- a Pakistani journalist has called it the first of three talaqs -- over the issue of restoration of judges is more than mere political face-saving or posturing. It is in fact a sign of the fundamental change that is taking place in the character of Pakistan's political forces, something that will have a deep impact on the future course of politics in that country.
Quite clearly, Nawaz Sharif wants the Pakistan Peoples Party-PML-N coalition to confront the Pakistani establishment head-on and force through measures that undo all the unconstitutional and illegal measures taken by the previous regime under President Pervez Musharraf. Partly because of a personal grudge, but more because he wants to deal a body blow to the establishment, Nawaz Sharif would like to make an example of President Musharraf by prosecuting him on charges of subverting the constitution.
He is not willing to wait to strike at the establishment, and his haste is quite understandable. In the flush of victory in the general election, the coalition has a golden chance to shake up the system without any fear of retaliation. But every day that passes reduces the ability of the popular political forces to take on and vanquish the establishment.
Asif Zardari wants to do everything that Sharif wants, but without getting into needless confrontation with an establishment that he still considers to be powerful enough to block the path of the democratic forces in Pakistan. Zardari would prefer to bide his time, chip away at the power structure by putting his own men in control of the administration, win the confidence and trust of the military, get the requisite majority needed in parliament to amend the constitution, and drive a wedge between the establishment and its political flunkies. If at all, Zardari will make his move only after tying up all loose ends. It is of course another matter that he might have lost the chance by then.
In their own way, both Sharif and Zardari are right and this is at the root of their failure to agree on a strategy to achieve their common political goals. Unlike Sharif, Zardari appears very skeptical about the possibility of people pouring out on the streets in defence of the coalition in the event that any precipitate action to restore the judges leads to a dismissal of the government by the President. He is not ready to take this risk just yet.
More than the National Reconciliation Ordinance under which corruption cases against him have been scrapped, it is the mounting economic crisis, the uncertain security situation, the US pressure on the party to avoid a confrontation with the President and the fear of establishment that that is weighing heavily upon him.
There is another reason why the PPP is avoiding an executive order to restore the judges. The PPP feels that this will set a very wrong and extremely dangerous precedent, one that governments in future can employ against institutions of the state. In any case, an elected government cannot and should not copy the methods of a military dictator even if this is to undo a patently and blatantly unconstitutional action of a dictator.
The issue is, however, no longer about observing constitutional proprieties. The battle today is for snatching power from the establishment and placing it in the hands of popular political forces. The PPP is paying a huge political price for failing to appreciate this fundamental point. Already, the ire of the public and the civil society has started shifting from Musharraf towards the PPP and its leadership. Zardari is fast becoming as hateful a figure as Musharraf.
In a bid to extricate itself from the difficult corner, the PPP has made the strategic error of reminding its detractors that it fought its election not on the issue of judges but on the issue of 'roti, kapra aur makan'. Party spokespersons try to deflect criticism by accusing the media of ignoring issues like rising inflation, food and energy shortages, the problem of terrorism in NWFP and Balochistan. In the process the PPP is shooting itself in the foot.
One of the first lessons of politics is that when in trouble try and deflect public attention. It is however a monumental mistake to deflect attention to an issue on which you have nothing to show. By concentrating on the judges issue, Nawaz Sharif has won kudos for his 'principled stand' and escaped any blame for the economic mess that confronts the government. The PPP on the other hand is facing opprobrium on the judges issue and every time it deflects attention to the economy or terrorism, it is confronted with its complete failure to get a grip on these issues.
Despite being in power for two months now, the PPP is behaving as though it is still sitting in the opposition.
Even worse for the PPP is the fact that it is being seen as an establishment party. One long standing oddity of Pakistani politics is that the PPP has always had an anti-establishment image but its policies in government have always been pro-establishment, while Sharif has always been seen as a pro-establishment politician even though he has challenged the establishment every time he has come into power.
This gap between perception and action is now closing with the PPP acquiring the image of being the establishment's party and Sharif emerging as the anti-establishment icon. Association with the establishment does bring a lot of benefits, but only as long as the party serves the interest of the establishment, after which the establishment junks it like toilet paper.
If indeed Zardari wants the PPP to be co-opted by the establishment, then he is on the right course. But if he is serious about changing the system, restoring supremacy of parliament and making the establishment subservient to popular political forces, then he must follow Sharif's line. While this might lead to the demise of the government, it will at least ensure that the party keeps its core political support base intact. Zardari's proposal of bringing in a resolution for restoration of the judges before a joint session of parliament has left open a small window for him to recover lost political ground. The joint session can debate the entire judges' issue and then adopt by an overwhelming majority a resolution for restoring the judges. The government can then issue an order to the police to fulfil the will of parliament.
Revolutionary change through the ballot box is still possible. The question is whether the PPP wants to live up to its image as a 'people's party' or whether it wants to get co-opted by the establishment.
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