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Why India might overtake China

July 18, 2008

Investment Growth

Many signs point to big increases in investment in India, Wilson says.

In fact, he estimates investment in India could reach 35% of GDP within a decade, which would enable it to match China's 9% plus growth. One reason is that the savings rate in India rose from 23.5% of GDP in 2001 to 28.1% in 2004.

And because of its growing workforce and the decline in family size, India's savings rate should continue to rise to a projected 37% in 20 years.

Since investment is highly correlated to domestic savings, that should translate into higher investment and economic growth.

Meanwhile, the rapidly aging population of China means that its savings rate also is likely to drop in the future, as it has in most other nations with graying workforces.

Second, India thus far has gotten by with minimal foreign investment. Keystone notes that in the past four years alone, China has drawn $200 billion more in foreign investment.

However, India is planning to open up many long-protected sectors that have great allure to foreign investors—and that could draw huge inflows of money.

They include telecom, where Indian demand now is growing even faster than China's, commercial real estate, and department stores. Although some of the reforms have stalled recently due to domestic political opposition, Wilson believes the government will prevail.

"If you look at the institutional changes and the number of industries that have liberalised over the past five years, the pace has been phenomenal,” he says.

Wilson predicts India's real estate sector will draw a huge influx of money from foreign hedge funds, and liberalisation of retail will be 'the real big bang' for the economy.

Image: The Indian national flag flies from atop a building. | Photograph: Indranil Mukherjee/AFP/Getty Images

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