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Rediff.com  » Election » Citizens report: Survey gives UDF power

Citizens report: Survey gives UDF power

April 27, 2006 22:26 IST
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Kerala

Survey gives UDF power

The ongoing Assembly Election in Kerala will be a surprise to voters as also many psephologists all over India. Congress-led UDF will get an unexpected victory.

As per the latest survey and analysis conducted by my team - RNSN (Riva News & Survey Network), it will be a tough fight between Congress-led UDF and CPI(M)-led LDF with a slight advantage to UDF. UDF is all set to retain the state.

The involvement of many Communist leaders in sex scams also damage the chance of LDF. Some of the major CPI(M)/LDF leaders involved in sex scams are -- Kodiyeri Balakirshnan, MA Baby, Sreemathy Teacher, MC Josephine, S Sharma, Veerendra Kumar, Neelalohita Dasan Nadar, Antony Raju, Sasi (Late EK Nayanar's Private Secretary), Krishnakumar (Nayanar's son), Dharmarajan (former Kottayam district secretary of CPI-M), Dasan, Rajgopal, etc.

Oommen Chandy is the most preferred CM among voters. He received 41 pc support, followed by VS Achuthanandan 25 pc, AK Antony 9 pc, Ramesh Chennithala 8 pc, K Karunakaran 5 pc, Pinarayi Vijayan 4 pc, Paloli Mohammed Kutty 3 pc, VM Sudheeran 2 pc, S Ramachandran Pillai 1 pc, O Rajagopal 1 pc, and K Muralidharan 1 pc.

UDF will get upper hand in the districts of Ernakulam, Kottayam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Idukky, Malappuram, Wayanad, and Thrissur. LDF will gain in Kollam, Palakkad, Kannur, Kasargod. In Thiruvananthapuram and Kozhikode, it is a neck-to-neck fight.

This time, BJP may open its account in the state. Their gains are mainly in Palakkad, Kasargod, and Thiruvananthapuram districts. They may win a maximum of 4 seats.

UDF may get 80-99 seats, LDF may get 39-56 seats, BJP may get 0-4 seats, and Independents may get 0-2 seats.

I am presenting the opinion poll results in Kerala:

Notes:

1. This Survey is conducted in all Assembly Constituencies in Kerala.
2. We conducted survey on 1000 voters per constituencies randomly.
3. There may be an error-level of ± 5%.

 

Total Seats :140

United Democratic Front (UDF) - 80-99
-----------------------------------------

Congress (I) : 44-52
Indian Union Muslim League : 14-16
Democratic Indira Congress (Karunakaran) : 9-12
KC (Mani) : 9-11
KC (Balakirshna Pillai) : 2
JSS : 1
RSP (B): 1
RSP (M): 0-1
CMP: 0-1
Muslim League Independent: 1


Left Democratic Front (LDF)
- 39-56
------------------------------------------

Communist Party of India (Marxist): 23-35
Communist Party of India: 11-12
RSP: 2
Janata Dal (Secular): 2
Congress (Socialist): 1
Kerala Congress (Joseph): 0-3
Kerala Congress (Secular): 0-1
Nationalist Congress Party: 0-1
Indian National League: 0


BJP: 0-4
Independents: 0-2

Riva T Philip
Software Engineer, Politician, Journalist

 

LDF can't deliver

There is a problem for voters in Kerala. They are confused. Voters have alternatively chosen LDF and UDF. I think it could change this time. Youngsters talk about development… they want jobs and a peaceful situation for industrial development. LDF cannot give it in Kerala. They can create that situation in Bengal, but they are against it in Kerala. The government will have to attract more private investment in Kerala. LDF is against private investment. The UDF government has given more employment through the Public Service Commission -- around 1,37,000. It is a record in Kerala. Youngsters expect more chance in the Private sector. So they are going to support UDF in this election.

Nisha K R
MBA Student

 

Tamil Nadu

Answer to voters' queries

After overwhelming mandate received in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu, 13 ministers of the DPA -- the great alliance -- only started to work for the upcoming assembly election. They were not bothered about the people, they were only focusing on how to form an alliance and crush Jayalalithaa.

People are raising these questions.

Tsunami that struck Tamil Nadu was not declared as a national disaster. Why?? Whereas Kashmir, which was struck by an earthquake of almost the same magnitude, was declared as one.

The Central government voluntarily went forward to give assistance to Karnataka and Maharashtra government when floods of lesser enormity struck. Whereas, despite having 13 representatives and 39 MPs, and several request by the chief minister, why was enough assistance not given.

The ministers and the leaders who are campaigning now for assembly election should have at least come and offered moral support to the tsunami and flood-affected people, if not for monetary support?

Have these duly elected MPs and ministers let down the people of Tamil Nadu? Assembly election results will be an answer to this....

Madanamohan
Businessman

 

Election means chaos

In Anna Nagar, election means chaos. A week ago, I was on my way to Shanthi colony when to my surprise I found a huge traffic jam. The reason was some political rally/meeting was holding up the entire traffic. What is usually a 10-minute work turned out to be a 45-minute task to complete.

In a large country like India, I am surprised that after so many years politicians cannot think of any other constructive way to campaign other than setting up shamianas and blocking up the whole area where they have their meetings.

V Chacko Jacob
Training Manager

 

TN in DPA's pocket

As per the latest survey and analysis conducted by my team - RNSN (Riva News & Survey Network), in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, DMK-led DPA alliance is all set to come back in power.

Tamil Nadu
----------------

Total Seats
: 234

DMK = 105-120
Congress (I) = 40-45
PMK = 22-26
CPI(M) = 6-8
CPI = 5-7
IUML = 1-2


AIADMK = 20-30
MDMK = 3-5
Dalit Panthers = 2-4
Puthiya Tamilagam = 2-6


MDDK (Vijayakanth) = 1-5

BJP = 0-2

Janata Parties = 0=1

Independents & Others = 4-8

 

PONDICHERRY
-----------------------

Total Seats: 30

Congress (I) = 17-22

DMK = 3-6

PMK = 2-3

PMC = 2-3

AIADMK = 0-2

MDMK = 0-1

Dalit Panthers = 0-1

BJP = 0-1

Independents & Others = 0-1

Riva T Philip
Software Engineer, Politician, Journalist

 

Assam

Survey favours Congress in Assam

As per the latest survey and analysis conducted by my team - RNSN (Riva News & Survey Network), in Assam, Congress will again form next government.

Total Seats: 126

Congress = 70-90

BJP = 15-25

AGP (Gosawmi) = 8-15

CPI(M) = 1-3

CPI = 1-3

Samajwadi Party = 0-1

CPI-ML (ASDC - P) = 0-1

CPI-ML (ASDC - U) = 0-1

AGP (Progressive, Prafulla Kumar Mahanta) = 5-10

NCP = 2-5

United Minority Front = 2-5

Independents & Others = 0-3

Riva T Philip
Software Engineer, Politician, Journalist

 

West Bengal

Left will retain power in WB

As per the latest survey and analysis conducted by my team - RNSN (Riva News & Survey Network), in West Bengal, CPI(M) will retain power, but with a reduced majority.

Total Seats: 294

CPI(M) = 115-140
AIFB = 15-25
CPI = 8-15
RSP = 7-12
Other LF Parties = 5-10

Congress(I) = 40-60
PDS = 5-10
Other Congress Allies = 2-5

Trinamool Congress = 35-55
BJP = 2-8
Other NDA Allies = 1-4

GNLF = 1-3

Independents & Others = 1-4 

Riva T Philip
Software Engineer, Politician, Journalist

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