What caused the huge BJP victory in the Assembly elections?
An analysis of electoral data relating to the margins by which the BJP has won the elections, shows that in a number of seats in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the tribal vote has gone strongly in the BJP's favour.
In states like Madhya Pradesh, the desertion of tribals has hit the Congress hard for the first time. The BJP has won in tribal constituencies by large margins.
Consider the figures. In the Jhabua-Ratlam region, long considered a fiefdom of the Congress, BJP leaders, especially second generation leaders, have won by huge margins.
The same holds for Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The average margin between the winning BJP and the losing Congress candidate is 10,000 votes, a big margin by any standards in an Assembly election.
The reasons for this are manifold. In Chhattisgarh, a subtle Hindutva campaign by the BJP -- in terms of a manifesto promise to keep aside Rs 500 per tribal family to help buy a cow -- overtook the development agenda -- building of roads and healthy supply of power -- that the Ajit Jogi government ensured.
In Madhya Pradesh, the turnout of tribals was huge and they all voted against the Congress.
In the districts of Malwa and Nimar, that returned a largely BJP verdict, the percentage of polling was higher than the last election, indicating perhaps that the RSS-BJP worked overtime to wrest the region back from the Congress, which won more seats the last time.
The inroads made by RSS fronts in Bhil tribe-dominated districts like Badwani and Dhar on Gujarat border appear to have resulted in higher turnout.
In Badwani, for instance, voting shot up by almost ten percentage points from 61.34 to 71.67 per cent.
This trend was reflected in the actual votes cast. In Jhabua, the BJP won against the Congress by a margin of more than 23,000 votes. In Balaghat, the Congress was behind by nearly 12,000 votes.
In Narsimhapur, the constituency of several times Finance Minister of Madhya Pradesh, Ajay Mushran, the BJP got 59,793 votes while the Congress got just 43,750, a humiliating defeat.
The same tribal verdict was visible in Rajasthan, where Banswara parliamentary constituency was gifted to the BJP, with the Sagwara assembly segment witnessing 55,128 votes for the BJP against 10,398 votes for the Congress.
The other trend that is clearly visible is in Rajasthan. The result for the BJP here has been dramatic, with the party winning nearly 60 seats where it has never won before and crossing the psychological barrier of 100 (of a total of 200 seats in the assembly).
Psephologists attribute this to skillful micromanagement of constituencies by the BJP. However, in 28 constituencies, the BJP has just squeezed past the post - it has won by margins of less than 3,000.
These constituencies include Bassi (992), Desuri (633) Kishanpole (718) Neem ka thana (205), Niwai (1439), Pipalda (415), etc.
The narrow margins indicate that unless Vasundhara Raje consolidates quickly and tasks her MLAs to work quickly, the trend in the assembly constituencies could change rapidly.
Currently, judging by the BJP's performance in terms of victory margins in the assembly segments, out of 25 Lok Sabha constituencies, it is winning decisively only in 11 or 12, below its current tally of 15.
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