The 25-year-old BAR driver was third behind the dominant Ferrari drivers in the world championship last year but in a troubled 2005 season has scored just nine points.
With the Renault and McLaren teams looking a cut above the rest at the moment, Button's 93-race drought looks likely to become 94 at the German Grand Prix this weekend.
"I don't think it will happen this year," the Briton said of his maiden victory. "We are so far behind.
"There will be circuits where we will be closer, and where the aerodynamics are not so important like at Monza where we will have more of a chance, because that's the main area where we are lacking.
"We just don't have a good enough car this year. BAR and Honda as we have seen in the past, have always improved the car throughout the year.
"But you do need to have a good base at the beginning."
Button's approach to Hockenheim this season was a stark contrast to last year, when what he described as the best race of his career won him the runner-up spot behind world champion Michael Schumacher.
He even outraced Renault's Fernando Alonso, this year's runaway championship leader. His ambitions for this weekend and the rest of the season are more modest.
"My goal is to keep improving throughout the year and to get closer to the Renaults and the McLarens, and if they slip then maybe we can grab a podium," he said.
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