The nonproliferation and disarmament lobby in the United States, which has been vehemently opposed to the India-US civilian nuclear agreement, is ready to pop open the champagne to celebrate.
The nonproliferation lobby is elated as the demise of the agreement is close at hand, with even senior members of the Bush administration acknowledging that the clock has all but run out on the deal.
Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, coordinated the coalition of nonproliferation activists and organisations against the deal and lobbied feverishly on Capitol Hill to torpedo this landmark agreement that provides India with an exclusive exception to US export control laws.
"The writing has been on the wall for some time, but it is obvious now that the current incarnation of the deal is dead," he told rediff.com.
But Kimball added, "For those who have opposed the deal on nonproliferation and disarmament grounds, the impasse over the deal is welcome but it does not represent a victory."
"By seeking to carve out a country specific exemption to global standards for responsible nuclear trade, the Bush administration's proposal has already undermined the beleaguered nonproliferation system," he said. "And, unfortunately, the debate about the deal in India has not prompted deeper debate about the role of nuclear weapons in India's security policy and why India should continue to maintain the option to build up its already sizable nuclear force at the cost of increasing the size of its nuclear energy sector."
Kimball argued, "It is also important to realise that the US-India relationship will continue to thrive and grow in the absence of the nuclear deal, which was never a good foundation to build a strategic partnership on."
"It is also important to reflect upon the deeper origin of the current impasse," he added.
Kimball said that at the last minute, "if the Left parties soften their opposition or the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh decides to defy the Left and risk their withdrawal from the United Progressive Alliance, the deal still faces trouble at the Nuclear Suppliers Group, where there appears to be sufficient concern and opposition among the 45 member states to deny India the 'clean' exemption to NSG guidelines that the Singh government and opposition parties have been insisting on."
Kimball was quick to add, "If the Bharatiya Janata Party thinks that it can renegotiate the deal if they regain power, they are deluding themselves and the Indian public."
"India will not be granted terms of civil nuclear trade that are more favourable to its weapons programme than the Bush-Singh deal already is," he predicted.
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