'Laden tape will not sway votes'

With Osama bin Laden sparking a debate between President George W Bush and Democratic rival John Kerry, analysts here feel the outcome of Tuesday's presidential election will depend on voter turnout and that the Laden videotape is unlikely to have much effect on the poll results.

"The impact of bin Laden videotape is still unclear," analysts said Sunday, though pointing out that it is unlikely to have much effect as most voters have already made up their mind.

However, some Democrats conceded that the tape could help Bush, as voters prefer him over Kerry as far as fighting terrorism is concerned.

But there are voters who make up their mind at the last minute. "Although their number is not much, perhaps two per cent, in a close race it could have a profound effect," said an analyst. Bush, during his campaign trail, tried to depict Kerry as a weak and vacillating leader unsuited to take on the challenge of terrorism.

Kerry dismissed Bush's assertion, describing the inability to nab bin Laden as a glaring failure of Bush and his administration. In an interview to ABC television,  Kerry said "I'm going to hunt down, capture and kill the terrorists, and I believe I will wage a far more effective war on terror than George Bush has."

The latest polls show the margin between the two candidates to be less than three percentage points, which is within the margin of error and, hence, for practical purposes, the race is still a dead heat.

According to NBC news poll analyst Peter Hart, the turnout is expected to be massive. The International Herald Tribune (IHT) quoted Senator John McCain, a Republican campaigning for Bush, as saying, "Every election we say it depends on voter turnout. It really does this time. However, we have no clue as to how many voters are going to come out and cast their votes." "I just don't think we've ever seen anything like this."

Long lines and a wait of up to three hours in the states that allow early voting had emphasized the intensity of voter feeling, it said.

Meanwhile, reports suggest that shortage of some 500,000 staff could lead to long lines. Though early voting, the paper said, might relieve pressure tomorrow, some states fear they do not have enough trained election workers to staff polling stations. Voter registration is up in most states, especially in the so-called battle ground ones.