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War unlikely before September

When Defence Minister George Fernandes said last week that there would be no military action against Pakistan till the end of September, he was reflecting the government’s much thought about agenda.

As details of Indian policy decisions after the latest militant attack in Jammu emerge, it is clear the government has decided to hold on to diplomatic options till the Jammu and Kashmir assembly election.

According to several government officials, the government is not looking at a military option “till the J&K election” unless something “drastic happens.” The election is scheduled for September.

Senior officials say there would be several more decisions, both diplomatic and military, that might take India close to military action. But a final assault may take place only after the Jammu and Kashmir election, and only if the situation does not improve.

The armed forces -- especially the Indian Army -- has been itching for war. During its presentations to the government in the wake of the May 14 Jammu attack, the army identified various military options, including cross-border raids on militant camps, for which it was ready.

However, the government asked the army to hold back till the Jammu and Kashmir election.

Among the steps the government may take in coming days are temporary abrogation of the Indus Water Treaty, withdrawal of Most Favoured Nation status, and full and final snapping of diplomatic contacts.

“We have begun eliminating our diplomatic options since the December 13 attack (on the Indian Parliament). Now it is the countdown to war,” a senior army officer said. Several soldiers lost their wives and children in the Jammu attack.

As part of its attempt to draw as many Kashmiri leaders into the electoral fray and make the state administration more efficient, the Union government is contemplating the appointment of former RAW director A S Dulat, who looks after Kashmir affairs at the Prime Minister's Office, as governor of Jammu and Kashmir.

The government believes if it shows the will to conduct the election despite militant attacks, it would be the best way to “show our commitment to democracy and people of Kashmir.”

If terrorist strikes during the election campaign go up as expected, “that would only give us that further edge and argument to strike across the Line of Control,” the senior army officer told rediff.

The Cabinet Committee on Security's decision on Sunday to put paramilitary forces along the border under the army's supervision and the Coast Guard under the navy's supervision are minor facilitators in a war effort.

In the past the absence of coordination between field commanders of the paramilitary forces and the army have damaged Indian efforts in Kashmir. It was most visible during the Kargil war when the Border Security Force contradicted several army claims.

Steps such as the CCS decision on Sunday are tactics to buy time and would continue, government sources confided.

The government is believed to have conveyed to the armed forces that the United States has assured it some “concrete action” while asking for more time to deal with Pakistan. During Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's visit in the first week of June, the government hopes to hear about some concrete Pakistani actions to curb terrorism.

As of now, the army has been given a virtual free hand along the Line of Control and international border in Jammu, but with a caveat not to cross the border. “We will intensify our heavy weapon retaliation,” a senior army officer said.

Army officers says they are ready for war “but a little more time would help us consolidate further and tide over the summer.”

Meanwhile, the government has undertaken several steps to keep up the morale of troops deployed along the border. On Monday, Defence Minister George Fernandes, accompanied by Army chief General S Padmanabhan and Air Force chief S Krishnaswamy, visited troops posted in Rajasthan.

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee will visit Jammu and Kashmir tomorrow.

Terrorism Strikes in Jammu: The complete coverage

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