Major General (retd) Ashok K Mehta
After Kosovo, will Afghanistan be next?
Releasing the annual report on patterns of global
terrorism just four months ago, Secretary of State,
Colin Powell ended his statement with the remarks
'Terrorism is a persistent disease and so the fight
goes on. Just as we acknowledge success today, we know
that there will be new challenges and yes, some
setbacks tomorrow…'
For the world's only superpower, that setback and tomorrow came this week on Black
Tuesday. The war against terrorism has finally been joined, rather belatedly and somewhat typically of the
US, after another Pearl Harbor. If the death toll reaches 20,000 as is estimated, it might become
history's biggest conventional kill on a single day.
Addressing a conference in Delhi last year on Islamic
fundamentalism, former CNN correspondent and
specialist on Islamic terrorism Stephen Emerson noted
that the US recognises terrorism only when it is
carried out against the US, its citizens and national
interests. He added that Western liberal democracies
do not see the danger in realtime and unless they
recognise the threat, the disease will spread. It is
for that reason that Islamic fundamentalism has
developed into terrorism and graduated into jehad.
It is believed the UK is the biggest centre of
Islamic militant leaders followed by the US, Italy,
France and Germany. India has gone hoarse telling the
US about the new epicentre of terrorism having shifted
from West Asia to Afghanistan and Pakistan but
Washington has not taken Delhi seriously till the
Manhattan skyline was brutally obliterated.
Osama bin Laden regarded as the patron saint of
international terrorism is the creation of the CIA.
After his Hiroshima on America, are his days numbered? He is already 'wanted' in the US for his role in the East African embassy bombings. Powell cited UN
sanctions against the Taleban for allowing terrorist camps
to operate on Afghanistan territory and for harbouring
Laden.
Last year there were reports from the UK-based
Jane's Information Group that a joint US-Russian
operation was likely to hunt down bin Laden. That did not
happen. Earlier attempts to take out bin Laden failed as
he has at least a dozen hideouts in the Hindu Kush
mountains. The only practical route to nabbing bin Laden
alive, not dead, is by the employment of US Special
Forces with the help of Russia and any of the Central
Asian Republics bordering Afghanistan like Tajikistan
or Uzbekistan.
Pakistan, America's traditional friend and ally, would have
been ideal in tracking down bin Laden who is the personal
guest of Mullah Omar, the supreme leader of the Taleban.
But Islamabad will be reluctant to cooperate owing to
any possible backlash from its own jehadis. Pakistan
is the only country which has an embassy in
Afghanistan and is the creator of the Taleban. Most of its
funding and operational planning is done by the
Pakistan military and the ISI.
However, Pakistan is
under great pressure after the attacks on America.
Pervez Musharraf is finally on test to prove his
country's bonafides on terrorism. He has said it will
provide unstinted support to the US in rooting out
terrorism. Pakistan a known champion of jehad will
have to do a tightrope act, meeting US demands
compatible with domestic sentiments. It seems
Musharraf has decided to act in the national interest even
if it means going against the Taleban and indigenous
fundamentalist groups inside Pakistan. He knows the US
knows the limits to which he can act without putting
his own job at risk.
If Pakistan is unable to provide total support against
any future operations against Afghanistan, the choice
for logistics and operational support may well fall on
Russia whose agents and operators are very familiar
with the terrain and local guides. India had pledged
its full support to the US but will be limited by its
lack of contiguity with Afghanistan.
The excitement of
a surgical operation a la Sylvester Stallone, to
abduct bin Laden, would be avoided if the Taleban simply
decide to hand him over or he pops a cyanide capsule
like Prabhakaran's Tigers, which would be a terrible
anticlimax. On the other hand, bin Laden has an extensive
web of operational and support networks, ranging from
his own al-Quaida to Islamic Jehad to Hezbollah to
other groups outside Afghanistan to do the vanishing
trick as he is reported to have done.
Bin Laden has given up the use of satellite phones for
networking his cadres and supporters. Instead, they
use the Internet to bury messages in pornography, music
and even blank verse, the modern day Enigma for secure
communications. Bin Laden has a personal fortune worth
$ 250 million and runs a business empire estimated
around a billion dollars.
No one in the US administration has named bin Laden
directly as one behind the attacks. President Bush has
described the attacks as the first war of the 21st
century. In fact, the US is itself to blame for the
laxity on monitoring terrorism on its soil and for the
laws of the land that encourage terrorism.
Preaching
violence is not a violation of law till it leads to
actual acts of violence. The car bomb attacks against
the World Trade Center in 1993 involved five different
Islamic militant groups. Islamic movements thrive in
the US and are liberally funded by Saudi Arabia. In
the past, at least after 1995, when Islamists gained
legitimacy in the US, even the president and White
House are known to have engaged different Islamic
groups. Emerson said there were reports that American
Muslims contributed up to $ 50,000 for Hillary Clinton's
election campaign last year. There are at least 10,000 known
Hamas supporters in Chicago while several hundred
backers of the Kashmir Front are gaining strength.
What the US has lacked so far is the political will to
act decisively against the very roots of terrorism.
They have decided to do so now after being grievously
wounded and humiliated by the likes of bin Laden.
US leaders have declared that their response to the
kamikaze attacks will not be unifocal but
multidimensional: political, diplomatic and military.
It will not be a single counter-attack but a
comprehensive and considered riposte at the heart of
the evil. Already forged is the unique solidarity
among NATO members. Secretary General George Robertson has said
that Article 5 of the NATO Charter and the Washington
Treaty have been invoked for the first time among the
19 member states to join the fight against terrorism.
This is a blessing in disguise for the world's most
powerful military coalition that has been searching
for an enemy ever since the dissolution of the USSR.
This new enemy will be as elusive as the one NATO has
been chasing for the last decade and more. After
Kosovo, will Afghanistan be next?
The war against terrorism is going global. Critical to
its success are a military strategy for
counter-terrorism, choking of financial pipelines
(funds for suicide bombers) and controlling zakat
(donations). The media will also have to chip in as a
force multiplier. The most decisive weapon against
terrorism is intelligence -- human intelligence.
Without it money flow can neither be monitored nor
terrorism tracked to its source.
The US has to first
set its own house in order before attempting to do so
elsewhere. US federal laws need to be tightened to
roll back legitimacy of militant groups.
India, which faces both an internal and external
threat from Islam, is the world's number one victim of
Islamic terrorism. It may finally have found a
strategic partner in the US against this evil, either
by an accident of history or an act of Allah as bin Laden
has called it. Pakistan has waged a proxy war against
India which is pure and abysmal terrorism which it has
the effrontery to call jehad, that the US has condoned
so far and shied from calling it terrorism. Instead it
is referred as cross-border violence. Hopefully that
will change now. A spade will be called a spade.
Pakistan's day of reckoning has arrived. It has to
draw a new Durand Line against further
Talebanisation. The emerging coalition against
terrorism has to address and attack the very concept
of religious fundamentalism and jehad. It is also high
time the world community came on grid implementing the
various UN conventions against trafficking and
financing of terrorism.
Major General Ashok K Mehta (retd)
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