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The Rediff Special/ Sreedhar

Desperately seeking Bill

From media reports it was clear that Pakistan is keen on President Clinton making a stopover in Islamabad during his visit to Bangladesh and India next week. Pakistani lobbyists in Washington were active on this count, and Islamabad mobilised some of its important friends like China to bring pressure on Clinton to visit Pakistan.

Chinese foreign ministry articulated privately on February 19 that Clinton must visit Islamabad has not surprised Pakistan watchers. Why is General Pervez Musharraf so keen about a visit by the US president?

At one level, General Musharraf considers that a US presidential visit would provide much needed legitimacy for his rule. In the aftermath of the October 12, 1999 coup, except a select few like China and Saudi Arabia, the majority in the international community has refused to do serious business with him. Organisations like the Commonwealth have demanded the return of civilian rule in Pakistan. At one point, even the US demanded a road map for the return of democracy in Pakistan to consider Islamabad on Clinton's itinerary.

With increasing popular disenchantment with military rule, General Musharraf desperately wants some important head of State to visit Pakistan to show to his people that he enjoys international support. Since he assumed power, except Mullah Rabbani, head of the Taleban government, no important visitor has come to Pakistan. In these circumstances, a visit by the sole superpower will be a great morale booster and provide legitimacy for his rule.

At another level, Pakistan has always demanded parity with India. In the post-Cold War era, especially after the Kargil war, many in Pakistan feel the US has tilted towards India. Dr Rifaat Hussain of the Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, writing in The News observes that 'discarding its traditional posture of evenhandedness towards chronically feuding India and Pakistan, Washington now seems to adopt a new regional policy of a strategic partnership with India.

'The most tangible manifestation of this changing American outlook on South Asia is the new diplomatic synergy between Washington and New Delhi embedded in ten rounds of sustained bilateral dialogue between Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbot and the Indian Minister of External Affairs, Jaswant Singh. Prompted essentially by South Asia's nuclear breakout in May 1998, the Talbot-Jaswant parleys acquired a life of their own.'

Dr Hussain goes on to add, that 'in marked contrast to the growing convergence of views between the US and India, Pak-US ties continued to fragment. Besides imposing additional sanctions against Pakistan after the October 12 coup, the US has also suspended foreign secretary-level talks with Pakistan. In addition, the US warned Islamabad against the rising tide of religious militancy in the country. During his January 20-21 visit, Karl Inderfurth, the US assistant secretary of state, reportedly conveyed his extreme concern over the spread of terrorism in the region and urged Pakistan's full co-operation to reduce this threat. Simultaneously, he urged Pakistan to sign the CTBT and return to democratic civilian rule as early as possible.'

In this Pakistani perception, a visit by the US president to Islamabad -- howsoever brief it may be -- may reverse the trend. Otherwise, Pak-US relations may become sore permanently. Pakistan also feels this may convey a negative image to the rest of the region and in the Islamic world about Islamabad. The end result could be isolation like the Taleban's Afghanistan for Pakistan in the international system. Pakistan can ill afford such an image at this juncture.

Equally embarrassing for Pakistan is the US president's visit to Bangladesh, which was part of Pakistan less three decades ago. Bangladesh is viewed by the international community as a role model trying to emerge from under development. Bangladesh's Grameen Bank experiment is universally hailed as an unique effort at stimulating development at the grassroots.

At the same time, Bangladesh, though an Islamic republic, is able to keep radical elements under check. Even the Bangladesh armed forces, who enjoyed political power in the late 1970s and 1980s, has accepted civilian supremacy and returned to the barracks. All this has made many comment that exploitation of the then East Pakistan from 1947 to 1971 was real and after separation from Pakistan, Bangladesh has prospered.

Clinton's visit to Dhaka reaffirms the international community's perception about a successful Bangladesh and a failed Pakistan. The visit is taking place when the daughter of the liberator of Bangladesh from Pakistan, Sheikh Hasina Wajed, heads the government in Dhaka. Pakistan finds it difficult to reconcile to the fact that its former 'colony' is being given far more importance by the US while it is dismissed at best with a 'technical halt.'

Pakistanis are aware that Clinton will sign a number of agreements to strengthen Bangladesh-US relations in Dhaka. In Islamabad, on the other hand, Clinton is likely to give sermons to President Rafiq Tarar and Chief Executive Musharraf.

The stop over, according to some Pakistani commentators, will help establish a feeling that Islamabad is not completely 'damned and discarded'. Pakistan knows it cannot be bailed out completely by the Chinese; and oil rich Arab states will have second thoughts towards it if the US signals its displeasure.

The Pakistan elite is aware that staging a comeback is closely linked with US perceptions about it. Clinton's proposed itinerary -- two days in Bangladesh, five days in India and six hours in Islamabad -- has already placed Pakistan in a not too happy position in subcontinental politics. It has not been declared a rogue state or a state sponsoring terrorism officially. But Clinton's brief halt shows how much Pakistan is important to the US. In order of priority, it is not even as important as Bangladesh is for the US.

In the emerging new world order what is important is economic development and interaction. Pakistan's policy of holy warriors and holy wars have no place. It has already cost it dearly in the international community.

The Pakistani desperation to have a US presidential visit -- even for a few hours -- is understandable. If Clinton had skipped Pakistan, the ramifications for Islamabad would be far too much, both domestically and internationally.

Sreedhar, a senior analyst at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, is an occasional contributor to these pages.

CLINTON VISITS INDIA :The complete coverage

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