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The Rediff Special/Tara Shankar Sahay

Pakistan's survival is in doubt, says new book

A new book says Pakistan's survival is in doubt because of political mismanagement, which has reached saturation point.

Pakistan: A Withering State, co-authored by Sreedhar of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, and Neelesh Bhagat and published by Wordsmiths, underlines that negative macro-level indicators have spurred analysts to describe the country as a "failed state" while others have commented on its "hopeless" situation.

But before discussing Pakistan's future, say the authors, three factors need to be considered.

Drawing attention to the functioning of political institutions in Pakistan after the 1973 constitution was adopted, the book says the statute's sanctity was damaged by its architect, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, when he brought in half a dozen amendments within 48 hours of introducing it in the National Assembly. By doing so, Bhutto proved he had scant regard for a document he himself had fathered.

Referring to General Zia-ul Haq, the book points out that when he decided to revoke the suspension of the constitution, he introduced amendments whereby none could question his absolute power. After Zia's death in 1987, successive presidents used these powers to dismiss elected governments.

Again, when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharief brought in constitutional amendments to curb the president's powers, which were passed within 48 hours, it was more to eliminate any threat to his position than to reform the statute. Thus, the sanctity of the constitution itself has been lost.

The second factor is the form of government that has been chosen. Thus, when the Pakistan election commission found a presidential candidate unqualified to contest the election, the EC itself was dismissed and replaced with a more pliable body. Similarly, in the accountability law passed on the eve of the February 1997 election, exceptions were made to bail out certain politicians.

The third factor relates to Pakistan having exhausted all known forms of popular government and looking for an alternative. The book says the country's intelligentsia is toying with ideas like a national government, a national security council, and a Taliban-type government with the Quran as the final authority. The people's discontent is manifesting itself in their disdain for institutions of governance. In the process, the situation has boiled down to Punjab versus the three smaller provinces. Against this backdrop, the ruling elite seems clueless which way to take out of a fearful mess.

Considering these developments, the book sees four possible scenarios. One: like many developing countries, which are going through a process of trial and error, "Pakistan will manage to survive", though it will continue to experiment with different forms of government.

Two: former prime minister Benazir Bhutto has been reported to have said that Sharief is initiating Pakistan's break-up on the lines of the erstwhile Soviet Union. Thus, the book says, the sudden collapse of the State and its division on broad ethnic lines is a possibility.

Three: since 1977, Pakistan has been unable to reconcile to the reality that Islam cannot cement a state. Thousands of boys are being enrolled in madarsas (Islamic religious schools), from where they are emerging with the Ummah (in which national boundaries have no relevance) as their raison d'être. Besides, Pakistan is harbouring renegades from Algeria, Egypt, Palestine and Afghans, all aspiring for Islam's suzerainty over the world. In such a situation, Pakistan will find it hard to survive as a country, the book says.

Four: the concept of unity in diversity and the politics of consensus have missed the Pakistani elite and the process of ethnic division continues. While in Sind the Mohajirs have carved out space for themselves and rule over Karachi and Hyderabad, the principal cities, the Pashtuns, or Pathans, have enlarged their area by getting the Durand Line between Pakistan and Afghanistan all but erased. It is a matter of time before they declare the North West Frontier Province a part of a Pashtun state, the book says.

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