Inflation worries: UPA bets on February polls

With the United Progressive Alliance's assurances on controlling inflation yet to materialise, the Congress is in no hurry to face Lok Sabha elections.

A November date has been firmly ruled out and the party brass believes February 2009 might be a good time. The final decision, however, will rest with the Election Commission.

The ruling party's calculations will mean the government will continue for the next three months before it dissolves itself to force the commission to draw up a schedule for the elections. In the intervening period, the party will try to make pro-people programmes more effective while stepping up the gas on the campaigns around the UPA's achievements.

According to top party sources, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh initially favoured clubbing of the general elections with the forthcoming state elections to leverage the government's successful steering of the Indo-US civil nuclear agreement. At least five states are scheduled to go to polls beginning November.

But the larger section of the party brass believes that although the UPA's success in ending India's nuclear apartheid will be an issue, the prevailing high inflation will be the more dominant factor.

Congress President Sonia Gandhi has been consistent in warning the party against high prices.

At the Congress Working Committee meeting two weeks ago, she expressed unambiguous anxiety over high prices in the run-up to the polls and asked government leaders to act fast. Gandhi has been assured that around November-December the inflation rate will come down to single digits from the current 12.14 per cent.

Party sources say the recent blasts in Delhi will be one reason the elections may be called only in February rather than in November. "We need to show to the nation that we have done something effective against terrorists," said a senior leader.

If elections are held according to the book, they must take place before May, 2009. The Election Commission can advance the elections up to six months. But it is highly unlikely that it will call for an election before Singh decides to dissolve the Lok Sabha.