Technical analyst Ashwani Gujral agrees that India is in a midst of a bear market and there are no demands coming in at any support levels.
"One just needs to keep waiting till it all ends or short anything in the morning and collect 10% by evening," he suggests.
Gujral sees a possibility that in the long term, the markets may fall to 6,000 and then resume a bull run from there all over again. This, according to him, could happen next year or even later this year.
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Ashwani Gujral:
How have you read today's trade?
It looks like we are in the midst of a bear market and there doesn't seem to be demand coming at any of the support levels. One just needs to keep waiting till it all ends or short anything in the morning and collect 10% by evening. It does not seem this will stop even at 2,600, although that is the next level we are looking at.
And for Sensex, something around 8,500-9,000, but there have to be good global cues to turn it. Probably by end of June, once the results come in, some kind of an intermediate bottom can be reached. But as of now, there is no demand and now the market will face a huge resistance at 9,826 and on the Nifty at 2,900.
What is the next logical target or support for the Sensex?
30% has been the range in all previous bear markets, so 8,871 seems to be a support on the Sensex and before that psychological level of 9,000. But these are all numbers and unless one sees real demand coming up, I don't think these supports will hold up.
If one goes back to the genesis from 3,000 to 12,500, how much of that can be retraced if you look at historical examples? From that base of 2800-3000 to 12,500 could you give up 50% of that fundamental big rise?
One could do that. In the long-term scheme of things may go back to 6,000 and again resume a bull trend maybe next year or later in this year. So it is possible that medium term bear market could eat up a lot of your gains and particularly on the midcaps, which had gone up 50-100 times; they could retrace much more than the main Indices. So actually, one could be even looking at 6,000 down the line.
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