The Planning Commission expects the gross budgetary support for the next fiscal to be close to Rs 190,000 crore (Rs 1900 billion). The additional demand from the ministries and states on account of programmes related to the national common minimum programme alone is a little under Rs 50,000 crore (Rs 500 billion).
If the government decides to use forex reserves to fund part of the plan, the actual outgo that the finance ministry will have to provide for will be much less.
In addition, the Plan body would have to work out how much of the current expenditure could be reduced by weeding out superfluous schemes, said officials. The finance ministry estimates that around Rs 10,000 crore (Rs 100 billion) can be saved by pruning various schemes.
A GBS of Rs 190,000 crore (Rs 1900 billion), if demanded, would entail an increase of about 30 per cent over the current year's budget support. The GBS for the Plan is Rs 145,600 crore (Rs 1456 billion) in 2004-05, an almost 20 per cent hike over the allocation of Rs 121,500 crore (Rs 1215 billion) in 2003-04.
While the states are expected to seek Rs 88,000 crore (Rs 880 billion) in the next fiscal, a steep 52.5 per cent increase over the current year's allocation, the Centre's requirement is expected to be around Rs 1,02,000 crore (Rs billion), 16 per cent more than the Rs 88,000 crore (Rs billion) allotted in 2004-05.
The increase in expenditure on account of the mid-day meal scheme, employment guarantee programme, Backward States Grant Fund and other new programmes are expected to push up the demand for funds under the Plan head.
The Plan body has written to the states, asking them to submit their estimates of the Plan size for the next fiscal. The states have been asked to assume an 18 per cent increase over the Plan sizes for 2003-04.
The central ministries have been asked to factor in a 12 per cent increase over the current year's allocation.
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