The much-awaited Budget for fiscal 2004-05 is out. Barring few positive sector-based announcements, overall, Finance Minister P Chidambaram announced measures that are likely to have long-term benefits on the economy. But there are areas which the FM failed to address:
1. What are the areas that the Budget has failed to deal with?
The Budget has failed to address issues pertaining to aligning interest on government savings schemes to market rate of return. Though there is a mention about the same in the Budget speech, the FM has failed to make a move this time. From the country's fiscal perspective, it is important to deal with this issue.
The liberal stance of the FM on direct and indirect taxes combined with a relatively higher spending on defense expenses raises apprehension over the country's fiscal status. Issues like reduction in minimum support prices for food grains, accountability of subsidies and control of government expenditure seem to have been overlooked.
2. The budget on a scale of 1 to 5....
On a scale of 1 to 5, equitymaster rates the Budget as 3. From a broader economic perspective, the continuation of thrust in infrastructure development, addressing fundamental issues like poverty, education and healthcare are big positives. By hiking the FDI limits in sectors like telecom, civil aviation and insurance, the FM has indicated the UPA government's openness to foreign capital (again in line with the CMP). This issue has been validated with such approvals.
From an investor perspective, exemption of long-term capital gains tax is an indication that the FM wants investors to think long-term when it comes to equities. Though there were apprehensions among investors regarding the implementation of the Kelkar committee recommendations, the FM has stayed away from the same.
However, higher defense spending, infrastructure support and so on without any clear reference to the revenue side raises apprehensions about the fiscal state of the economy in the future. Overall, it was a budget with no real bold moves.
3. What is the one big positive in the Budget proposals and why?
As we mentioned earlier, unlike the previous Budgets, this Budget has emphasised a great deal on rural development. Though agriculture contributed to only 25 per cent of the GDP, almost 68 per cent of the population depends on agriculture as a source of income. This section of the populace was relatively overlooked in the past three years. Addressing such fundamental issues are likely to set a solid platform for the Indian economy from a long-term perspective.
4. The Budget has been a positive for which sectors?
Telecom, textiles, tractors and infrastructure related industries have benefited the most from the Budget announcements.
5. The Budget has been a negative for which sectors?
There is no significant negative impact from a long-term perspective on any sector except for steel, copper and oil marketing companies. Besides tinkering with customs and excise duties, the two per cent education cess on direct and indirect tax should increase the effective tax rate across sectors. Besides, the 20 per cent tax on debt mutual funds could affect those firms that have large surplus cash reserves that are parked in mutual funds.
From the stock market perspective, the imposition of the turnover tax is negative, as the percentage (.15%) was higher than market expectations. However, there is clarity required on this front (whether it is on delivery based or on all buy side trades). This could impact the near-term sentiment.
6. Has this budget warranted a change in investment strategy as far as equities are concerned?
It has been maintained before the Budget that the prospects of the Indian economy remain promising. Though valuations have been upgraded in the last one-year, looking at the earnings growth prospects, equities are attractive. Not only are equities good for retail investors as a standalone investment avenue, but also on a relative basis to fixed deposits, debt funds and small saving schemes. While our optimism has increased for some sectors like telecom, this Budget has not impacted in any way the long-term outlook for the stock market. Though the market has reacted negatively to the Budget today, the investors are advised to use this as a buying opportunity. But pick and choose.
7. What is the theme of the Budget 2005?
"A change in the manner in which this country is run, a change in national priorities, and a change in the processes and focus of governance". As compared to the last two to three years Budget, the emphasis in this budget towards the agricultural sector and rural development is higher, which is in line with the CMP. Issues like improving the education and healthcare standards were also among top priorities.
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