Telecom: Pre-budget sector analysis

Emerging Sector - The telecom sector has been one of the fastest growing sectors in the Indian economy in the last 2 years. This has been witnessed due to string competition that has brought down tariffs as well as simplification of policy environment that has promoted healthy competition among various players. Due to this reason telecom density in the country has risen to 7.5% in FY04 compared to 3.64% in FY01.

Mobile telephony growth driver - The mobile sector alone has been growing rapidly and has emerged as the fastest growing market in the whole worlds. This sector is expected to reach a size of nearly 75m by FY06.

Long distance telephony potential - The de-regulation of the domestic/international long distance telephony segment and tariff rationalisation has increased telecom usage. Due to the entry of competition in these segments the tariffs have reduced significantly and this has led to higher usage of these services. Going forwards due to the low penetration of these services among the populace, the growth of these services is likely to be robust. Just the international long distance telephony segment is likely to witness growth of between 15%-18% in volumes in the next 3-4 years.

Consolidation picking up - The government has eased the rules regarding inter circle and intra circle mergers. This has led to a slew of mergers and acquisitions in the recent past. Also as the sector is moving closer to maturity, further consolidation is a reality and this will lead to the survival of more profitable players in this segment. Smaller players are slowly realising the need for adequate management skill (given the dynamics of the industry) and capital to sustain growth. Bigger players continue to expand operations.

Broadband push - In order to further promote the use of Internet in the country the government is taking proactive steps to develop this sector with the help of the various players in this segment. Hence for this purpose the use of broadband technology is being mooted and this will go a long way in improving the productivity of the Indian economy as well as turn out to be the next big opportunity for telecom companies after the mobile communications segment.

Regulatory environment still evolving - The regulatory environment, though has improved, is still perplexing. The tariffs in this sector are still regulated to an extent by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI). This impedes free market forces form deciding on tariffs.

Favoritism prevalent - Competition has increased multifold and certain government policies seem to be favoring telecom PSUs. Penetration level in rural areas has more or less remained stagnant. For instance cellular operators have to pay an Access Deficit Charge (ADC) to a fixed line carrier. Since over 90% of the fixed line infrastructure is owned by the incumbent BSNL, cellular firms have to pay a heavy toll to BSNL, which in turn is passed on to the consumers. This in turn keeps the tariffs high.

Highly taxed sector - The COAI (Cellular Operators Association of India) has indicated that the telecom sector, especially the cellular services segment, continues to pay very high duties and levies. The association has also indicated that due to the high rates of duties and levies and falling ARPUs, cellular service providers are not in a position to fund expansion and enter in to the relatively lesser-serviced rural areas. Currently, the sector is paying duties and levies under various heads including annual license fees, spectrum charges and access deficit charge. In addition to the above, significant levies are also imposed on the industry on account of sales tax, service tax and import duties on handsets and other telecom hardware. As a matter of fact, the report states that the burden on the sector on account of access deficit charge, spectrum charges and license fees is to the tune of 25%.