Pakistan, a rogue country

Pakistan may have done more harm to itself over the last couple of months than anyone realises.

The revelation that it has been the world's biggest nuclear proliferator, that it has been hawking nuclear know-how to every country that the US considers a rogue state, and the obvious fact that the Pakistan government and army must have been in the know all along -- all these will make the western world look at the country through a completely new prism.

A Q Khan's public confession and his double-quick pardon by President Musharraf will fool no one, because it is transparently a ploy to get the subject off the headlines and radar screens, and an attempt to stem the flow of damaging revelations.

The fact is that the world's view of the region has already changed, because no one can live comfortably with the thought that they are under nuclear threat on account of an irresponsible Pakistan.

Many commentators have wondered about India's studied silence on the subject, when in the normal course they would have expected India to milk the opportunity for all it is worth.

The fact, though, is that India is best off doing and saying nothing, at least in public, because nothing needs to be said publicly. Privately, discussions will always go on, but henceforth they will be on a different footing.

No one can turn a deaf ear any more to what India has been shouting from the house-tops all these years: that Pakistan is fundamentally a rogue state, that it has the jehadist ideology at its core, and that the Pakistani establishment simply cannot be expected to behave responsibly.

The only question is how Pakistan will be dealt with tactically, and how much the short-term tactics will be at variance with long-term strategy. For there can be little doubt that western strategic planners will want to make contingency plans for the eventuality that a nuclear-armed Pakistan goes overtly Islamist.

A certain degree of hypocrisy can of course be expected to continue. One uncomfortable point is the role that China has played in the proliferation game -- passing on nuclear secrets to Pakistan while being a signatory to the non-proliferation treaty.

For another, Pakistan remains a "frontline" state that has to be handled with care lest it blow up in everyone's face. Nevertheless, the ground underneath has shifted: Pakistan is now nobody's ally, it is a problem. And it might end up as the biggest loser in the American war on terrorism.

The immediate western, or American, concern will be to make sure that no more damage is done, and that further proliferation is not going to take place. For this they will have to deal with President Musharraf all over again, and so punches will be pulled for a while.

But this time the good president will have to work much harder to establish his and his country's credibility, compared to the long months when he successfully claimed there was no more cross-border terrorism while indulging in underhand activity all along.

But once that phase is over, a longer-term western project can be expected to begin. The fundamental shift at this stage will probably be from support to the Pakistan army to support for that country's civil society.

Because the army has shown that, at root, it cannot be trusted. And, as India has argued all along, it is futile to put your faith in one army general after another, however moderate a face he may present to the West. The only way to make Pakistan a safe place is to invest in civilian institutions and usher in a full-blown democracy.

This might sound like a neo-conservative agenda, to convert a potentially Islamist state that sponsors both terror and nuclear blackmail into a modern liberal nation-state, and is of course tantamount to playing God.

The chances of any such project succeeding are therefore slim: people and societies and cultures are not that easily influenced. But since the alternative that the West has relied on, namely the Pakistan army, is clearly part of the problem, the neo-conservative game might well end up as the only game in town.

What success it will have is anybody's guess. So India most of all cannot sleep easy.