Rising rupee: Who gains, who loses?

After depreciating by 6.2 per cent between April 2, 2004 and August 6, 2004, the rupee has appreciated by as much as 5.7 per cent since then. While most attribute this appreciation to the greenback's weakness as opposed to rupee's strength, one cannot ignore the fact that it has implications on the stock market and profitability for India Inc.

Without getting into the complexities of why the dollar is tumbling, we take a closer look at the top importers and exporters of the country and what is the magnitude of impact?

The data is of FY04 from the Quantum Universe of 350 companies. All figures are as a percentage to sales, on a standalone basis. We have divided the export dependent sectors into three sets i.e. software, pharmaceuticals and companies from other sectors.

The exporters lobby (% sales - FY04)

Given the fact that software exports (including ITES) accounted for an estimated 17.9 per cent of the country's exports in FY04, it is not surprising to see that the contribution of exports to revenues of technology companies are higher.

But there is one crucial factor, which investors need to consider. While the rupee has appreciated against the dollar, the rupee has actually depreciated against the euro for the period between August 6 and December 1.

What is therefore important to consider here is the contribution of the United States to total revenues of software companies, which are dollar denominated.

Based on our estimate of the top three software services companies in India -- Infosys, Wipro and TCS -- the US accounted for 59.8 per cent of combined revenues in FY04.

Therefore, the recent rupee appreciation will have a negative impact on the software sector. The magnitude of impact is likely to differ between companies.

Our interaction with five of the software services companies suggest that the companies have hedged themselves against the dollar for the next twelve months and to that extent, the impact is mitigated.

The new contracts that are likely to be signed from here on will factor in this rupee appreciation and to that extent, there will be a negative impact.

Having said that, considering the strong move towards offshoring in the global markets, higher growth in revenues could partially negate the Rupee appreciation.

Moving away from software companies, domestic pharma majors are also highly dependent on exports viz. the US, Europe, South America and SAARC countries. Of the consolidated revenues of Ranbaxy, 43% was accounted by the US markets in FY04.

In the case of Dr. Reddy's, the contribution stood at lower at 28% in FY04. While companies like Biocon, Nicholas Piramal and Wockhardt do not have significant US contribution as of now, going forward, this is likely to increase and to that extent, margins may be affected.

Besides pharma majors, other sectors from the list that are highly dependent on exports are hotels (Hotel Leelaventure and EIH) and Nalco.

On a conservative basis, dollar denominated revenues account for at least 60 per cent of room revenues of hotel companies.

While the removal of the quota regime is a positive for the textile sector, if rupee continues to trade firm or appreciate, it may not be that profitable. In this context, expectations need to be realistic.

The importers lobby (% sales - FY04)

The key beneficiaries from the rupee appreciation are importers, as the dollar is now worth less for every rupee or to put it in different terms, less rupee can buy more dollar denominated assets/commodities/goods.

Among the importers, companies from energy dependent sectors are likely to benefit in a significant manner (energy, paints and few textile majors).

Companies that source raw materials from the global markets and are largely domestic demand driven could potentially witness margin improvement.

Besides companies, rupee appreciation is also a positive for the government's financials and capital goods sector (most of the equipments are imported, as the country is technology deficient).

To conclude, as India's trade with global markets increase (this includes imports, exports, FII inflow and FDI inflow), the impact of exchange rate movements cannot be underestimated. At times, adverse exchange rate movements could affect money flow into the country.

Since exchange rate movement is not only dependent on what is happening in India but also in the US and other economies, the complexity increases dramatically.

Without trying to be 'doomsayers', investors need to take a balanced view on factors like exchange rate, interest rate trend in the US and so on, before jumping onto the hot 'India story'.

Equitymaster.com is one of India's premier finance portals. The web site offers a user-friendly portfolio tracker, a weekly buy/sell recommendation service and research reports on India's top companies.