Just how much will Indian wicket politics dictate South Africa's fortunes? Who knows? Certainly, not any South African, but if the Aussie tour is anything to go by, the South Africans will not be sure of what sort of wickets will be served up.
The Aussies played at four venues and none of the wickets were the same! Suffice it to say that India's best result came on a raging turner. With India's three quality spinners to South Africa's basically one rookie spinner, it should be a 'fait accompli' not even worth discussing; but in India you can never be sure.
South Africa have been in decline for a while now and the players at the core of the team, who made them a force in the 90s, are either gone or ageing, and, to be honest, there have not been enough quality replacements, especially in the bowling department.
The presence of 10 new players on an Indian tour will mean that the older guys will have to do a lot by way of guidance.
It's not an easy tour what with the crowds and interminable requests -- simply dealing with a cricket-crazy country is difficult. You want to be nice to everyone and it is a distraction you need to know how to deal with. But South Africa could have an advantage in that the new players don't have to deal with expectations, which gives them the freedom to play their natural game. The pressure to perform is always on the home side, and after the win in Mumbai, the expectations of the home fans will be very high.
Technically, of course, India must start as favourites, especially if the wicket turns. The injury to Jacques Kallis, too, is a big blow to South Africa. He is playing purely as a batsman -- and that's always a plus -- but his bowling skills are also vital. His knowledge of what length to bowl, where to attack batsmen and how to slow things down at a crucial time will be sorely missed. His reverse swing is important on the subcontinent, too.
Batting-wise, South Africa are competent rather than brilliant and will depend heavily on Graeme Smith for a solid start. In fact, he could be the difference between an Indian rout of South Africa and the latter, maybe, squeezing out a drawn series. He's a big score man and will have to set the trend if South Africa are to post decent totals.
Boeta Dippenaar is dependable, but once he is out, experience is thin on the ground.
Hashim Amla has promised much with some impressive domestic scores but India in India is a whole new ball game. If he comes through with a good tour it will be a mighty plus for South Africa. It will be his biggest test, but his wristy play ought to suit the tracks.
The bowling attack, however, is worrying. Shaun Pollock is always dependable but has perhaps lost just a little pace on a regular basis. He can crank it up when he needs to but he must look at the Indian batting line-up and think to himself 'this could mean a lot of overs for me'!
If you know at least 20-25 overs will be required for the day, you need to look after the "effort ball" and use it to good effect.
Makhaya Ntini will put in 110 per cent and is always prepared to bowl flat out for his captain, but his wide-of-the-crease delivery stride and skidding action plays into the hands of sub-continental batsmen especially on the slower, less bouncy Indian tracks. His natural angle will allow Sehwag, Tendulkar and Laxman to work him through the on-side knowing the LBW is almost out of the equation and his pace will be to their liking.
Alfonso Thomas and Andrew Hall are competitive cricketers -- there are no two harder triers in the game -- but as with all medium pacers in India, they will need to learn subtle variations of pace and use of the crease to have any impact. They will do their bit but, and it's the biggest 'but', who will spin India out on a turner?
The cupboard is bare. Robbie Peterson didn't even play in the warm-up game and Justin Ontong went for over five an over against India's second-string batters. Smith even resorted to himself and Amla, part time bowlers in South Africa's domestic competition.
It doesn't bode well, but who knows? If a part-timer like Michael Clarke could do it for the Aussies, maybe one of South Africa's new boys can, too.
South Africa always lift as a team, especially when they are underdogs. But it is hard to see them bowling India out twice on Indian wickets. So India has to be a 1-0 favourite. And, somehow, at the back of my mind, I think the Little Master is long overdue for a big one. Now that is a real headache for Graeme Smith.
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